僵尸世界大战

闷热黏糊的夏天要来了，下周奥克兰等地或有暴雨_我的网站

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A | Sophie 编译夏季开始了，一股即将到来的亚热带气团将给北岛带来一个闷热的开端，可能会有大雨。

RALEIGH, N.C. – The 2024 election promises to feature several major battlegrounds, but for sheer breadth of competitive contests, North Carolina next year will be hard to beat.

It starts with the presidential race. Recent presidential contests in North Carolina have been close: In 2020, Donald Trump won North Carolina by about 74,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Experts expect a competitive race again in 2024.

In addition, a newly empowered GOP majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court is poised to redraw the congressional map to benefit Republicans, producing the possibility of competitive races.

Meanwhile, the parties will fiercely contest both chambers of the legislature, which the GOP currently controls by narrow supermajorities, thanks to a Democrat-to-Republican party-switcher in the state House earlier this year. That party switch, by state Rep. Tricia Cotham, now enables Republicans to enact a strongly conservative agenda over the vetoes of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper if they wish.

Cooper, for his part, is term-limited, teeing up a knock-down, drag-out contest to succeed him, likely between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

And that isn’t it for falling dominoes: The decisions by Stein and Robinson to seek the governorship leave their old offices of attorney general and lieutenant governor up for grabs in 2024, joining the GOP-held offices of state treasurer and labor commissioner as open-seat contests. The Democratic-held offices of secretary of state and auditor and the Republican-held offices of schools superintendent, insurance commissioner and agriculture commissioner will also be contested in 2024, with varying degrees of competitiveness.

In other words, in 2024, North Carolina will be one of the centers of the political universe – important in part because it’s a uniquely competitive state.

“There’s no telling who will win in 2024, but I’d bet half-court tickets to the UNC-Duke game that it will be close and North Carolina will retain its title as the definition of ‘purple,’” says Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist (and no relation to the governor).

In recent years, North Carolina has mostly hosted close statewide races. During the 2020 and 2022 elections, North Carolina held 16 federal and state races for statewide office – and no candidate in any of them won more than 54% of the vote.

In addition, unlike most states in this highly polarized age, North Carolina has elected a thorough mix of Democrats and Republicans to statewide executive offices, which suggests that voters in the state – or at least a crucial subset of them – are willing to split their tickets.

The Republicans have done best in Senate and presidential contests. In those races, the GOP has kept a consistent – if modest – edge. It’s been a decade and a half since a Democrat has won one of those races. The last to win were Kay Hagan for Senate and Barack Obama for president, both of them way back in 2008.

“North Carolina has proved to be a purple state, but not necessarily a swing state,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “The statewide outcomes have been among the closest in the country, but Republicans have found themselves just on the winning side of the razor’s edge for presidential and Senate elections.”

The most intriguing contrast one can draw for North Carolina is with one of its neighbors to the south. Could North Carolina follow Georgia’s path in voting blue for Senate and presidential elections?

For the better part of two decades, Georgia, like North Carolina, had voted consistently Republican in key federal races – until 2020. That year, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won uphill, and narrow, victories for Senate seats, while Biden was winning the state in the presidential race. In 2022, Warnock won another close election to a full six-year term.

In an era when urban areas have grown bluer by the year, Georgia has seen its major metro area – Atlanta – steadily move toward the Democrats. In 2000, metro Atlanta backed Republican George W. Bush by 4 points. By 2020, the Atlanta metro area backed Biden by 28 points, a whopping 32-point shift.

North Carolina’s biggest metro areas saw a similar pattern.

North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham metro area backed Gore in 2000 by less than a point. Two decades later, Biden won it by 26 points. The state’s most populous county, Wake County (which includes Raleigh and Cary), favored Bush in 2000 by about a point, but backed Biden by 27.

Similar patterns held in the North Carolina portion of the Charlotte metro area. In 2000, Bush won the Charlotte metro area by 18 points. But by 2020, Biden won the region by 4 points – a 22-point shift. The state’s second largest county, Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte), voted for Bush by almost 3 points in 2000 but Biden by a massive 36 points.

Such shifts helped the Democrats narrow the statewide gap substantially in North Carolina. In 2000, Bush defeated Gore statewide by 13 points, whereas Trump defeated Biden by about 1 point.

But these shifts weren’t enough to tip the state to the Democrats in the presidential race. A big reason why: Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte don’t have as large a footprint in North Carolina as metro Atlanta does in Georgia.

In 2020, Atlanta’s metro counties accounted for just shy of a majority of votes cast in Georgia – 49%, up from 46% in 2000. So even as outlying Georgia was growing redder – backing Bush by 19 and Trump by 26 – Democrats were able to turn a 12-point statewide loss by Al Gore in 2000 into a narrow victory for Biden in 2020.

By contrast, the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte metro areas account for a minority of the state’s voters, growing from 36% of the votes cast in 2000 to 42% in 2020.

In other words, in North Carolina, the Democratic gains in the two big metro areas were nearly canceled out by the large and growing GOP margins elsewhere.

“North Carolina has the second most rural voters in the country after Texas, so running up the score in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte won't get you victory the way Atlanta does in Georgia,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “There’s been a massive Republican gain in rural areas”

Over the next quarter-century, Wake and Mecklenburg counties are projected to grow dramatically faster in population than most other North Carolina counties, according to calculations by the state’s Board of Science, Technology & Innovation. Over the long term, this could make the state bluer.

But for now, North Carolina’s political balance of power belongs in the hands of “countrypolitan" counties, a term coined by Mac McCorkle, a longtime North Carolina consultant who now teaches at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, and Rachel Salzberg.

These 28 counties sit within the economic and commuting orbit of North Carolina’s metro areas, but they’re located on the outlying edge, and they lack the racial diversity, college attainment levels and higher incomes that increasingly align with voting Democratic.

By McCorkle’s and Salzberg’s calculations, “countrypolitan” counties backed Trump in 2020 by a gaping 63%-36% margin, and collectively they provided Trump with about 50% more raw votes than North Carolina’s 50 most rural counties did.

That’s a major reason why Republicans have remained modestly ahead in North Carolina, at least in high-profile federal races, experts say.

To do well in North Carolina, says Western Carolina’s Cooper, “Democrats don’t have to win the rural vote, but they have to avoid getting pummeled.”

This is the goal of Anderson Clayton, the newly installed head of the state Democratic Party. At 25, Clayton, an Appalachian State University graduate, is the youngest state Democratic chairman in the nation.

“One of the things that I think that I learned from being on national campaigns is that a lot of times the national party is not looking at rural places like they should be,” Anderson told an audience in Union County, according to The Washington Post. “They’re looking at it as a place of a problem. And for me, I got really frustrated with that. It was part of the thing that called me home.”

This advice doesn’t just hold for presidential and Senate races, political observers say. It will also help determine whether Democrats can stay competitive in North Carolina’s state-level offices or whether Republicans start running away with them.

Since the dawn of the 20th century, North Carolina has elected only three Republican governors – one for a term in the 1970s, one for two terms in the 1980s and 1990s, and one for a term in the 2010s.

Historically, the successful Democratic model for winning North Carolina gubernatorial races has been to nominate a candidate who can win in metro areas but who hails from less populated regions of the state and connects with voters there. A good example is the current governor, who helped his family farm tobacco while growing up.

But the pool of potential Democratic candidates from more rural areas “has dried up,” says Rob Schofield, the editor of the online publication NC Newsline. Lining up Democratic candidates to run everywhere, as Clayton seeks to do, will be challenging.

“That counts on people running even if they know they will lose and be sacrificed, which is a hard sell,” says Ferrel Guillory, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of North Carolina.

In any case, the likely 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stein, is set to break his party’s historic mold. Stein, a former legislator who has won two terms as attorney general, grew up in Chapel Hill, home of the University of North Carolina, and earned his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth and a law degree and a master’s of public affairs from Harvard.

Meanwhile, Stein’s potential Republican opponent also represents departure from past Republican gubernatorial candidates, who have tended to be economic conservatives from metro areas: Robinson is an outspoken social conservative who has flirted with conspiracy theories, ranging from the moon landing to crisis actors in school shootings.

Robinson doesn’t have a clear path to the nomination. In the primary, he faces state Treasurer Dale Folwell, former Congressman Mark Walker, former legislator Andy Wells and retired health executive Jesse Thomas. But he’s considered the front-runner, due to a strong core of support in a state where, by law, 30% plus one is enough to win a primary.

If the race comes down to Stein and Robinson, as conventional wisdom suggests, “it will be an epic and titanic battle that will be bitterly divided and deeply polarizing,” says Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College. “Probably the most expensive gubernatorial race in the nation for next year, and it may break state records.”

One unknown for now is how the Republican supermajority flexes its expanded policy muscle.

After years of opposition, the GOP legislature in March passed legislation to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, and Cooper quickly signed it. But after Cotham’s party switch produced a supermajority, Republicans sidestepped Cooper’s veto and passed a 12-week abortion ban, which is being challenged in court.

Passage of the abortion ban could energize Democrats, as it has in other purple and even red states. This could be exacerbated if the GOP passes other laws popular with the party’s socially conservative base but unpopular among moderates. Robinson’s candidacy, too, risks scaring off Republican moderates.

“When the Republicans moved to find some way to accept Medicaid expansion, to me that reflected that, wow, these guys may be understanding their rough edges,” McCorkle says in an interview. “Then the abortion law happens and then Robinson happens. That could explode things.”

John Hood, president of the John William Pope Foundation, a grant-making foundation, says he believes Republicans in the legislature are “realistic.”

“They recognize that either Stein will be governor or Robinson will be governor, and they don’t trust either,” Hood says.

Ultimately, the noise from the presidential race, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee, could drown out everything else down-ballot.

“The national networks and media may be so consumed by the presidential election that state issues may not affect the public’s mind,” Guillory says.

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B | 塔斯曼海上空形成的低压系统将把亚热带的湿气带过来，预计下周北岛上部将有几波潮湿空气通过。 Advertise with us “周日和下周，湿度水平有时可能达到夏季标准。”Niwa气象学家Ben Noll说。

C | “如果你走到户外，你会注意到这一点。

D | ” 当气温高到让我们出汗，而空气中又有足够的水蒸气时，我们就会真正开始感到黏糊糊的。 Noll提到了下周一些预测的露点值——露点是指在特定温度下，空气中的水蒸气开始凝结成液态水，比如草上面会有凝结的水。

E | 这也为我们将感受到的闷热提供了一个更好的指标，而不是天气预报中通常使用的“相对湿度”。 “下周，在奥克兰这样的地方，露点将在15摄氏度以上，有时甚至高达18摄氏度或19摄氏度。” “这取决于个人的情况，但一旦露点达到16摄氏度或17摄氏度左右，情况就会变得有点不舒服。” “我们预计会有三到五天的时间，在这段时间里，会感觉天气有点湿热。” 据MetService报道，随着闷热天气的到来，也可能会出现暴雨，特别是从周六下午到周日的Westland地区。一股雨带横贯了北岛，正带来大量的雨水和逐渐增强的西北风，尤其是在北岛南端附近。

F | 同时，南岛南部的天气预计将较为干燥，而来自南部的气流可能会给Marlborough Sounds以南的东部地区在下周初带来凉爽的天气。 Noll说，在未来几周，北方可能会有更多闷热的天气。

G | “随着下月的到来，我们似乎会有更多的机会迎来这种潮湿的天气——尽管真正出现类似的热带气候的时间是12月初。” Noll表示，虽然这些亚热带气候模式更像是拉尼娜气候周期，但它强调了一个事实，即使在厄尔尼诺气象系统下，新西兰上方的西太平洋仍在保持温暖。

H | “在夏季，我们会不时地受到来自北方的气流的影响——可能相对较少——然后其他时候，我们将会受到来自澳大利亚的更干燥、湿度较小的气团的影响。” “我预计我们不会像去年夏天那样经历那么多潮湿的亚热带天气——但在某种程度上，我们下周看到的情况将在整个夏季重复出现。” Niwa将于明天发布12月至2月期间的气候展望。相关阅读：暂时温暖别大意，寒冷天气蓄势待发！24小时内气温或骤降10度奥克兰发布强雷暴监测！下午和晚上北岛或遭遇暴雨和冰雹恶劣天气又要来了！新西兰多地发布暴雨和强风预警本周奥克兰等地将有零星阵雨或大雨，周末天气会很好本周又是天气不稳定的一周气象部门已发布橙色暴雨警告全国各地气温骤降，南岛大范围降雪，周末奥克兰多云多雨假期结束，风雨来袭！奥克兰的雨下午就到！天气异常变化：本周五，新西兰这里将下雪厄尔尼诺来袭新西兰今夏出现热带气旋的风险有多大？炎热干燥！今年夏天新西兰的气温或将飙升至39度厄尔尼诺现象来了！几周之内，新西兰气候会发生怎样的巨大变化？厄尔尼诺来袭 2024或成史上最热一年 “厄尔尼诺”在路上，全球天气会受何影响？科学解释：今年雨水为什么格外泛滥？何时到头？注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。

I | 使用授权请联系[email protected]。 chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有 (责编：Sophie) 相关内容夏季严打：奥克兰警方上周末抓到19人酒驾，37名司机被开罚单工党官宣第54届国会团队阵容部分资深议员排名大跌奥克兰市长公布交通新计划：乘坐公共交通每周封顶50纽币奥克兰北岸华人被袭案：嫌犯因精神错乱被判无罪夜间奥克兰北岸和南区发生两起大火，居民被疏散，一学校今晨关闭奥克兰北岸路上有一名男子死亡！死因不明，警方正在调查【先驱自媒】新西兰总理改中文名了！办公室曝光，长这样…… 【先驱自媒】奥克兰市长一年出访4次上任一年自评为“7分”。